The housing market is shifting again, and there’s a lot happening as we head into the final stretch of 2026.

Mortgage rates have taken a bad turn, affordability continues to be a challenge, and homes aren’t selling quite the way they did a few years ago. At the same time, people are still buying, homes are still selling, and there are opportunities in this market for people who understand what’s actually happening.

Here are a few of the biggest things I’m watching right now.

Mortgage Rates Are Moving in the Wrong Direction

For a while, a lot of buyers were operating under the assumption that they could simply wait for mortgage rates to come down. That strategy is looking a little less certain.

Rates have moved higher again, and the possibility of borrowing costs climbing even further is very real. After several years of rate volatility, there’s still no clear indication that buyers can count on significantly lower rates anytime soon.

That doesn’t mean everyone needs to rush out and buy a house. But if your entire plan has been based on waiting for a much lower mortgage rate, it may be worth taking another look at the numbers.

There’s no guarantee that rates will move in the direction we want them to, or that home prices will cooperate if they do.

Is Buying Now a Mistake?

This is probably one of the biggest questions buyers are asking us right now.

Interestingly, a recent study looking at more than two decades of housing data found that buying now beat waiting two years 61% of the time. That doesn’t mean buying today is automatically the right decision for everyone. Your finances, how long you plan to stay in the home, the payment you’re comfortable with, and what’s happening in your local market all matter.

But it does challenge the idea that waiting is always the safer financial decision. Interest rates are only one part of the equation. While you wait for a better rate, home prices can change, inventory can change, competition can increase, and you’re also giving up time you could have spent building equity.

The better question usually isn’t, “Should I wait for rates to drop?” It’s, “Does buying make sense for me at today’s numbers?” Those are two very different questions.

Sellers Have to Work Harder, Too

The shift isn’t just affecting buyers. There was a period when putting a home on the market almost guaranteed attention. In some areas and price ranges, sellers could get away with aggressive pricing, limited showing availability, or a home that wasn't completely ready for the market.

That’s not the environment we’re in today. We’re seeing some homes sit while others continue to sell quickly. The difference often comes down to the fundamentals: price, condition, presentation, showing access, marketing exposure and, in some cases, seller concessions. Buyers have more choices than they did during the most competitive years of the market, and higher monthly payments have made them more selective about those choices.

That doesn’t mean it’s a bad time to sell. It means the strategy matters more. A well-prepared home that is positioned correctly for the current market can still attract plenty of attention. But sellers have to understand what they’re competing against and give buyers a compelling reason to choose their home.

The Affordability Problem Nobody Talks About Enough

Mortgage rates and home prices get most of the attention when we talk about affordability, but there’s another expense becoming increasingly important: homeowners insurance. Premiums have risen dramatically in recent years, and that increase gets added directly to the monthly cost of owning a home.

For buyers, that means the price of the house and the mortgage rate don't tell the entire story. Taxes, insurance, HOA fees and maintenance all affect what a home really costs each month.

For existing homeowners, rising insurance premiums can also mean a noticeable increase in a mortgage payment even when the mortgage itself hasn't changed. It’s another reason we encourage buyers to look at the complete financial picture rather than focusing on one number.

So, What Should You Do?

There isn't one answer that works for everyone in this market. For some buyers, moving now may make sense even with higher rates. Others may be better off waiting. Some homeowners may be surprised by how much demand there is for their home, while others may need to adjust their expectations based on current competition.

What I wouldn't recommend is making a decision based entirely on a headline about mortgage rates or housing prices. Real estate is local, and your individual situation matters.

If you're thinking about buying, selling, or you're simply curious about what your home is worth in today's market, give us a call. We can look at the actual numbers and help you figure out what makes sense for you.

— Rob

There’s a housing proposal working its way through Congress that hasn’t gotten nearly as much attention as mortgage rates or home prices, but it could have a real impact on homeowners, especially those who have owned their homes for a long time.

It’s called the More Homes on the Market Act, and the idea behind it is pretty simple: update a capital gains tax rule that hasn’t changed since 1997.

The $500,000 Exclusion Isn't What It Used to Be

Under current federal law, when you sell your primary residence, you can generally exclude up to $250,000 of your gain from federal capital gains taxes if you’re single, or up to $500,000 if you’re married filing jointly, assuming you meet the requirements for the exclusion.

Those numbers probably sound fairly generous until you realize they were established nearly 30 years ago.

Think about how much home values have changed since 1997, particularly in markets like Maryland and Northern Virginia. Someone who bought a home decades ago for $200,000 or $250,000 could easily be sitting on a property worth several times that amount today.

That appreciation is obviously a good thing. Homeownership has helped that person build substantial equity. But when it comes time to sell, some longtime homeowners are discovering that a portion of that gain may extend beyond the current exclusion.

And that can affect the decision to move.

What Congress Is Considering

The bipartisan More Homes on the Market Act would double the current capital gains exclusions to $500,000 for individuals and $1 million for married couples filing jointly. The legislation would also provide for inflation adjustments going forward, rather than allowing the thresholds to remain frozen for another few decades.

This isn't a small issue affecting only a handful of extremely expensive homes.

The National Association of Realtors estimates that roughly 13.1 million homeowners, about 15% of owner-occupied households, could exceed the current capital gains exclusion if they sold their primary residence.

That's where this becomes more than a tax story. It becomes a housing inventory story.

Why This Could Put More Homes on the Market

Imagine someone who bought their home 25 or 30 years ago. The kids are grown, they don't need as much space anymore, and they'd actually prefer to downsize.

Financially, though, selling may not be as simple as it sounds. Their home has appreciated significantly, and depending on their individual circumstances, selling could result in a substantial taxable gain.

So maybe they wait.

From that homeowner's perspective, that decision may make perfect sense. But multiply it across millions of homeowners and you start to see the effect on the housing market.

One longtime homeowner decides not to sell, which means one fewer home available for the family looking to move up. That family stays in its current home, which means that home doesn't become available to another buyer. Housing inventory depends on people being able to move through different stages of homeownership.

Building more homes is obviously an important part of addressing housing supply. But sometimes increasing inventory also means removing obstacles that keep existing homes from coming onto the market.

This Hasn't Passed Yet

The important thing to understand is that this is still proposed legislation. Homeowners shouldn't make a financial or real estate decision today assuming these new exclusions will become law. But it is worth watching.

The More Homes on the Market Act has bipartisan support, and the National Association of Realtors has been actively advocating for the change. If enacted, it would represent the first major update to these exclusion limits in nearly three decades. For longtime homeowners who have accumulated significant equity, that could make a meaningful difference when deciding whether to sell.

And for everyone else trying to buy a home, it could matter too. Anything that removes a legitimate barrier keeping homeowners from selling has the potential to bring additional inventory onto the market.

If you've owned your home for a long time and you're considering selling, it's worth understanding how much your property has appreciated and what that could mean for you. The tax side is a conversation to have with a qualified tax professional, but knowing what your home is worth today is a good place to start.

Maryland homeowners may soon have more flexibility to turn part of their property into a separate living space and, in some cases, a new source of rental income. A new Maryland law requires counties and municipalities across the state to allow accessory dwelling units, commonly called ADUs, under local zoning rules beginning October 1, 2026.

For homeowners, this is a significant change. ADUs have been restricted or difficult to build in many communities, but the new statewide rules are designed to make them a more realistic option.

What Is an ADU?

An accessory dwelling unit is essentially a smaller, independent home located on the same property as a primary residence. It has its own living space and can take several different forms depending on the property.

It could be a finished basement converted into an apartment, space above or inside a garage, an addition to the existing home, or a detached cottage in the backyard. That flexibility is part of what makes ADUs interesting. A homeowner doesn't necessarily need a huge piece of land or room for an entirely separate house to take advantage of the new rules.

What Maryland's New Law Changes

One of the biggest changes is that local governments will have to allow ADUs rather than simply prohibiting them through zoning.

The law also sets some statewide parameters around what local jurisdictions and homeowners associations can restrict. In general, an ADU can be as large as 75% of the gross floor area of the primary home, subject to the law's other limitations and local requirements.

The law also limits the ability of HOAs and similar associations to adopt rules that effectively prevent homeowners from creating or using an otherwise permitted ADU. That doesn't mean every homeowner in Maryland can start building a backyard cottage tomorrow, though.

There Will Still Be Local Rules

Counties and municipalities will still have an important role in determining exactly how ADUs are approved and built. Homeowners will need to comply with applicable zoning, building codes, fire-safety requirements and permitting. Depending on the property, water, sewer and septic capacity could also affect whether an ADU is practical.

In other words, the state is opening the door to ADUs, but the details of what you can build — and what it will take to get approved — will still depend heavily on where your property is located. Before spending money on plans or construction, you'll want to understand the rules for your specific property.

Why This Could Matter for Homeowners

The rental-income potential will probably get a lot of attention, and understandably so. For some homeowners, an ADU could create an opportunity to generate monthly income from property they already own. But rental income is only one possible use.

An ADU could give an adult child a more affordable place to live while maintaining some independence. It could provide private space for aging parents who want to be close to family without living in the same household. It could also give homeowners more flexibility as their own needs change over time.

And from a real estate perspective, that's where this gets particularly interesting.

A property with the ability to accommodate a legal ADU may appeal to buyers differently than it did before. Buyers may begin looking at basements, garages and larger lots not just for what they are today, but for what they could potentially become.

That doesn't automatically mean adding an ADU will increase a home's value dollar-for-dollar with the cost of construction. As with any major improvement, location, demand, construction costs, rental potential and the quality of the finished space will all matter. But it does give Maryland homeowners another option that wasn't always available before.

Thinking About an ADU? Start With the Property

If you've considered adding a basement apartment, converting a garage or creating a separate space for family, this is a good time to start researching what's possible.

The first question shouldn't necessarily be, "How much could I rent it for?" It should be, "What can I legally and practically do with this particular property?" From there, you can start looking at permitting, construction costs, utilities, potential rental income and how an ADU could affect the property's overall value.

Maryland's new law doesn't make every property an ADU property overnight. But for many homeowners, it could create options that weren't realistically available before, and that's worth paying attention to.

Everyone is talking about AI right now, and real estate is no exception. One of the questions I hear more and more is: Will AI eventually replace real estate agents? I don't think it will. But I do think it's going to change what people expect from their agent, and frankly, that's probably a good thing.

Artificial intelligence has made information that once required a professional much easier for anyone to access. A homeowner can open ChatGPT, Zillow or another online tool and start researching home values, recent sales, neighborhoods, mortgage payments and market trends in seconds.

That's useful. I use AI, too. But having access to more information isn't the same thing as knowing what to do with it.

A Range Isn't a Pricing Strategy

Let's say you're thinking about selling your home. An online tool may look at nearby sales, property records and other available data and estimate what your house could be worth. Depending on the property and the data available, that estimate might even be pretty close.

But there's a big difference between estimating a home's value and deciding how to price it when it actually hits the market. Maybe two nearly identical homes sold for $35,000 apart. Why? One may have had a better lot. One may have been renovated more recently. Maybe one backed to a busy road. Maybe the photography and presentation were dramatically better. One could have received multiple offers during a particularly competitive weekend.

And the final sales price doesn't always tell the entire story. A buyer may have received seller-paid closing costs. There may have been inspection negotiations or repairs. The financing terms could have affected the strength of the offer. A seller may have accepted a lower price because the buyer offered better timing or fewer contingencies.

The numbers matter. The context behind those numbers matters just as much.

AI Is Going To Make Good Agents Better

This is the part of the AI conversation I think gets overlooked. AI doesn't have to replace real estate agents to have a huge impact on real estate. It can help agents research faster, analyze more information, communicate better and spend less time doing repetitive administrative work. Used well, that means an experienced agent can spend more time doing the things clients actually need them to do. That's a good thing.

If technology can handle work that used to take me an hour and give me more time to study the market, talk with clients, prepare a property or negotiate a deal, I'm going to use it. The value isn't in avoiding technology. It's knowing how to use it.

The Job Was Never Supposed To Be Printing a CMA

For a long time, access to information itself was part of the value of hiring a real estate agent. That's changing. Consumers can see listings immediately. They can research sales history, property taxes and estimated values. They can learn about mortgage rates and calculate payments without ever talking to an agent.

So if an agent's entire value proposition is simply providing information a homeowner can already find online, AI probably should feel threatening. But that's never been where a great agent provides the most value. The real work is interpreting what's happening.

Which comparable sale actually matters when pricing your house? How much should you adjust for condition? Is that price reduction across the street a warning sign or an outlier? Should you accept the highest offer, or is another offer actually stronger once you look at financing, contingencies and closing costs? And when something changes halfway through a transaction, what's the best move now? Those aren't just data questions. They're judgment calls.

Real Estate Is Still a Very Human Transaction

Buying or selling a home isn't like asking AI which television to buy. For most people, it's one of the largest financial transactions they'll ever make. There are negotiations, inspections, appraisals, financing issues, deadlines and sometimes a lot of emotion involved.

Technology can help us analyze those situations. But someone still needs to understand the client's priorities, explain the tradeoffs and help make decisions when there isn't one obvious answer. That's why I don't look at AI as competition. I look at it as another tool.

The agents who learn to use it well will probably become faster, better informed and more efficient. At the same time, consumers will become more informed, too, which means they'll expect more from the person they hire. And they should. AI may make real estate information easier to access than ever before. But as information becomes easier to get, experience, judgment and local market knowledge become more important, not less.